{"date":"2026-07-08","computedAt":"2026-07-08T23:20:06.050Z","provenance":"live","pillars":[{"id":"extension","score":92.1,"available":true,"indicators":[{"id":"dist200","label":"AI basket vs 200-day average","value":0.32935859669565537,"percentile":89.66011466011466,"available":true},{"id":"ret12m","label":"12-month basket return","value":1.0282510767694086,"percentile":92.9049811636668,"available":true},{"id":"slope63","label":"3-month trend slope","value":0.0054216769233529855,"percentile":94.86035686578744,"available":true}],"caveats":["Equal-weighted basket of the designated universe; SMH/SOXX act as cap-weighted proxies."]},{"id":"tape","score":72,"available":true,"indicators":[{"id":"distdays","label":"Distribution days (SOXX+QQQ, 25 sessions)","value":15,"percentile":83.89377149407719,"available":true},{"id":"breadthdiv","label":"Near-high breadth divergence","value":0,"percentile":46.73640167364017,"available":true,"note":"0 = none, 1 = severe"},{"id":"narrowing","label":"Equal-weight AI vs SMH, 3-month slope","value":-0.00046784567849374225,"percentile":81.40031031807602,"available":true},{"id":"above200","label":"% of universe above 200-day average","value":0.675,"percentile":70.4954954954955,"available":true}],"caveats":["Measures selling pressure in the tape; does not observe who is selling.","Institutional flow (13F aggregation / prime-broker / fund flows): no feed connected."]},{"id":"leverage","score":95.5,"available":true,"indicators":[{"id":"marginyoy","label":"FINRA margin debt, YoY growth","value":0.5370450399583044,"percentile":null,"available":false,"note":"monthly, ~4-week publication lag"},{"id":"margin6m","label":"FINRA margin debt, 6-month growth","value":0.16571894910818474,"percentile":null,"available":false},{"id":"turnover","label":"Universe dollar-volume vs 1-year norm","value":0.6246170087263492,"percentile":95.50397323295692,"available":true}],"caveats":["Margin debt is market-wide, monthly, published ~4 weeks after month end — not AI-specific.","Options positioning (put/call, 0DTE): no reliable free feed — not scored."]},{"id":"rates","score":39.8,"available":true,"indicators":[{"id":"d10y63","label":"10y yield, 3-month change (pp)","value":-3.88,"percentile":0.05816207832493214,"available":true},{"id":"dreal63","label":"10y real yield, 3-month change (pp)","value":0.26000000000000023,"percentile":78.92594028693291,"available":true},{"id":"hyw21","label":"HY spread, 1-month change (pp)","value":-0.07000000000000028,"percentile":50.273972602739725,"available":true},{"id":"hyrange","label":"HY spread within 1-year range","value":0.04819277108433739,"percentile":17.666666666666668,"available":true,"note":"0 = tightest, 1 = widest"},{"id":"igw21","label":"IG spread, 1-month change (pp)","value":0.020000000000000018,"percentile":73.76712328767124,"available":true}],"caveats":["FRED daily series applied with a T+1 knowability rule."]},{"id":"reaction","score":63.7,"available":true,"indicators":[{"id":"sharesold","label":"Share of results sold next session (63-session window)","value":0.5675675675675675,"percentile":76.93693693693695,"available":true},{"id":"meanreact","label":"Mean abnormal reaction to results","value":0.01067300603654912,"percentile":47.432432432432435,"available":true}],"caveats":["A reaction gauge, not consensus revisions — noisy by construction; reads best over full reporting seasons.","Excluded (6-K reporters, timing ambiguous): ARM, TSM, ASML, IREN, NBIS.","Consensus revision momentum: data unavailable — no estimates feed connected."]},{"id":"supply","score":99.6,"available":true,"indicators":[{"id":"issuance90","label":"Issuance filings, rolling quarter (weighted count)","value":59,"percentile":99.59286545172547,"available":true,"note":"neocloud filings ×2"}],"caveats":["Counts, not dollars — a single mega-deal can matter more than many small filings.","Universe-only: does not capture market-wide AI issuance.","Deal sizes/pricing: data unavailable — no deals feed connected (deals.csv adapter ready)."]}],"composite":{"score":84.2,"base":72.2,"kicker":12,"band":"red","confidence":"high","availablePillars":6},"stage":{"stage":3,"dwell":36,"label":"Stage 3 — Distribution / stress-test","rationale":"Tape distribution elevated (tape 72) with composite 84 — selling pressure into a still-standing trend."},"narrative":{"headline":"Distribution / stress-test: composite fragility 84.2/100 (red), easing over the past month.","paragraphs":["The composite fragility score stands at 84.2 — distribution-risk territory (-5.1 points over 20 sessions). That includes a +12.0 synchronization add-on — multiple warnings are lining up at once, which is the pattern that matters more than any single signal. The cycle read is Stage 3 — Distribution / stress-test (held 36 sessions): Tape distribution elevated (tape 72) with composite 84 — selling pressure into a still-standing trend. The equal-weight AI basket sits 8.9% below its one-year high.","What is driving it: issuance activity is heavy: 59 weighted registration/offering filings across the universe in the past quarter (score 100). Also, leverage and speculation are elevated: FINRA margin debt is up 54% year-over-year (monthly, ~4-week publication lag); universe dollar-volume runs 62% above its one-year norm (score 96). Also, trend extension is stretched — the AI basket trades 32.9% above its 200-day average, with a 103% twelve-month return (score 92).","What is not confirming: rates and credit are not the problem — spreads and yields sit inside normal ranges (40)."],"watchlist":["A retreat below 65 on the composite for five sessions would close the current episode.","Watch the next reporting season's reaction breadth — persistent selling of results is the missing confirmation for a rollover call.","Credit is the quiet tell: high-yield spreads near one-year tights leave no cushion — sustained widening would escalate the read quickly."],"caveats":["Consensus revisions: no estimates feed connected — the earnings pillar reads announcement reactions only.","Institutional flow: not observed — the tape pillar infers selling pressure from price/volume only."]},"baskets":{"ai-all":825.32,"layer:semis":694.46,"layer:infra":1203.9,"layer:hyperscalers":293.1,"layer:software":336.98,"layer:neoclouds":5251.86,"layer:power":608.77,"etf:SPY":192.1,"etf:QQQ":248.06,"etf:IWM":164.07,"etf:SOXX":446.24,"etf:SMH":533.89,"etf:IGV":170.11,"etf:AIQ":290.14,"etf:BOTZ":169.74},"inputsUsed":{"prices":"2026-07-08","macro":"2026-07-08","margin":"2026-05-01","earnings":"2026-06-24"}}